The 2018 Tangipahoa Parish Year End Review and 2019 Forecast

Image result for Market review

We have compiled a year’s end market review and market trend summary for Tangipahoa Parish 

As we review this information know that this is a high-level overview of the area as pockets of different areas on the macro level  could show different results


There’s no doubt about it, the 2018 housing market has seen its ups and downs. The year started with rising home prices due to the increase in cost to build, low inventory, historically low mortgage rates and a definitive upper hand for sellers. In recent months though, home price growth has faltered, rates have risen to their highest point in nearly eight years, the cost to build has not declined, and favor has started to shift from seller to the buyer.

Will these trends continue? Will housing experience the same wild ride in the new year?

Most of the growth that is happening continues to be in the south end of the parish. The maps below show the general location of the sales over the last 5 years.

2013 – 1047
2014- 1036 Sales
2015 – 1169 Sales
2016 – 1232 Sales
2017- 1334 Sales
2018 – 1397 Sales


Prices have continued to increase for Tangipahoa Parish over the last 5 years. As Tangipahoa Parish continues to grow so has the Median Sales Price overall for the parish. The Median Sales prices have increased from $149,500 in 2013 to $172,500 in 2018.

Median Sales Prices Over The Last 5 Years

Market times were typically low in this market, as reported by the MLS. Since 2014 days on the market has been decreasing; however, in 2018 the DOM stabilized.

As we have reviewed the data over the last 5 years let’s take a closer look at the last 12 months in 2018.

2018 started out reasonably strong; however, After July the data would indicate that the median sales price was in decline except for September. The overall trend line indicates that the sale prices have been on a slight decline in 2018

In our appraisal research, we have identified slightly increasing marketing times; however, they are still within a very low period of fewer than 50 days for 2018.


Median List prices are indicating a slight decline but have been basically flat for 2018.

The number of sales tends to follow the seasonal market of buying and selling. The spring and summer months tend to be busier than the “winter” months.

As this market has experienced increases in value over the last 5 years, it appears that the market may be peaking at this time. I personally foresee some stabilization in 2019. The uncertainty of what will happen with interest rates and cost to build will have an impact as increases in wages do not appear to be keeping pace. Again, this would be affected mainly by the interest rates, the cost to build and stabilization of demand.

New Construction- What’s the Trend?

As we review housing needs, the U.S. Census indicates that the average U.S. household is 24 percent smaller than it was in the early 1960s. Although last year saw a slight uptick perhaps caused by millennials finally getting married. Still, there are fewer Americans per house or apartment than there were a few decades ago. Despite this, the median new single-family house completed in the U.S. in 2018 was 59 percent bigger than it was in 1973. American Households Have Gotten Smaller Persons per household.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Despite this, the median new single-family house completed in the U.S. in 2017 was 59 percent bigger than it was in 1973.

The number of new homes being built in Tangipahoa Parish has been increasing over the last 5 years, and after reviewing the sale of 404 new home sales in 2018, the Average Home Size was 1800 square feet with an average Price Per Square foot of $108 per square foot overall.

The median price per square foot overall has increased over the last 2 years but so has the cost to build.

Does Lot Size Matter?

None of the indicators above should shock anyone who has driven by any of the new subdivisions in the last couple years in South Tangipahoa Parish. It is interesting to see that the house size has been relatively stable; however the lot sizes have been decreasing. This partly due to the demand of the market but also the cost to build in materials, workforce and development costs.

The cost to build versus the price to buy is approaching a point that may push some builders out of the market due to the cost to develop and build as well as the number of buyers available to purchase also decreases due to the median income for residents in the area. Tangipahoa Parish is feeling the growing pains of this, and the market is reacting by wanting smaller lots and homes with upgraded amenities.

Below you will find an example of the cost to build from a respected Cost Index CoreLogic Swift Estimator. As the Median Home Price ranges from $166,000 to $172,000 over the last two years, it leaves very little room for builder profit. As the cost to develop continues to drive the cost to build new homes upward this directly impacts the potential home buyers in the market.

The data from the Tangipahoa Parish Planning Department indicates the number of new construction permits was slightly down from 2017. I know it seems like the number of houses being built in South Tangipahoa Parish is in the multiple thousands the permits say something different. For a Parish the size of Tangipahoa Parish these permit numbers are great numbers.

New Construction Permits in Tangipahoa Parish 2017 Vs 2018

Will Mortgage rates continue rising?

Despite steady climbing for the past two years, mortgage rates remain lower than they were during most of the recession and below average for the type of strong economic growth we’ve been experiencing. That may change in 2019, as the 30-year, fixed rate mortgage reaches for the 5+% territory. However, at the time of this blog post interest rates were declining to 4.44% for a 30 year fixed mortgage.

No photo description available.

2019 Forecast

Overall the housing market in Tangipahoa Parish was healthy in 2018 and as 2019 approaches, I am anticipating home sale prices to remain stable. I think it will be a slightly slower year as the market continues to wrangle with possible higher mortgage rates after contending with several years of rapid price growth and the increased cost to build but not dramatically slow. This appears to be the trend for the Northshore area overall.

The medium and long-term prospects for housing are good because demographics are going to continue to support demand. Tangipahoa Parish has a number of developments in different phases of starting and building. As the market slows the price appreciation, incomes will have an opportunity to catch up. With slower sales, inventory has an opportunity to normalize.

If you have been on the fence about selling it appears that the market is peaking so now may be the time. All in all, housing appears to be set for a little bit of a slow-down in 2019, as the public responds to the market and the economy and the cost of construction finds its sweet spot.

If you have any questions, we would be happy to assist you with your real estate appraisal needs or real estate consulting. Please feel free to leave your comments below or contact our firm for assistance.

We wish everyone a healthy and prosperous 2019, Happy New Year!!!!

  • The above statistics were taken from the local MLS/Gulf South Real Estate Network via my personal defined and mapped market areas. Keep in mind these statistics may not include total market data and times, due to prior listings via canceled or expired then possibly reissued and for sale by owners, but give a general idea of statistics if a single-family property is actively and reasonably marketed or priced. This is not to be taken as financial advice or legal advice but is only for information purposes only. 

St. Tammany Parish 2018 Market Review and 2019 Forecast

We have compiled a year’s end market review and market trend summary for West and East St. Tammany Parish. This is an overview of a large area, and there may be pockets of smaller areas that could result in different data on the macro level.

There’s no doubt about it the 2018 housing market has seen its ups and downs. The year started with rising home prices, historically low mortgage rates and a definitive upper hand for sellers. In recent months though, home price growth has faltered, rates have risen to their highest point in nearly eight years, and favor has started to shift from seller to buyer.

Will these trends continue? Will housing experience the same wild ride in the new year?

The majority of the sales continue to be in the south end of the parish and on the west end of the parish. The maps below show the general location of the sales over the last year in St. Tammany Parish.

2018- 3996 Sales in St. Tammany Parish

The major majority of sales have taken place west of the center of St. Tammany Parish.

West St. Tammany

Let’s review the last 5 years of median sale prices in West St. Tammany. The overall trend in the previous five years has been increasing sales prices.

Now Let’s drill down to the last 12 months and review what has been happening in West St. Tammany Parish.

The market data indicates that overall the market has experienced an increase of approximately 4% for 2018 with an average sales price of $258,700.

2018 List Prices

Although list prices have been up and down over the last 12 months list prices overall have declined in 2018

The number of sales has been declining since July. Part of this is seasonal; however, part of this is an indicator that the market is slowing down.

Days to sell are slightly increasing since June of 2018 but are still considered on the low end of the number of days to sell. However, the number of sales that are occurring has been in decline since July of 2018, and housing inventory has increased. These are signs that the market has peaked and is slowing down.

Housing inventory at the end of year has really taken an upward jump.

Now Let’s Review East St. Tammany

Sales for the Last 5 years in East St. Tammany Parish

Again, The 5-year trend has been increasing year over year from $139,000 to $179,950 in 2018. However, Let’s drill down and take a look at the last 12 months in East St. Tammany Parish. Median Sale prices have experienced a slight increase over the last 12 months.

However, since July list prices have been declining and overall in the last 12 months, list prices have been falling. It will be interesting to review at the end of the first quarter of 2019 to see if the market trend continues.

Median days to sell is doing quite well at less than 50 days for the last 12 months.

In East St. Tammany Parish sale prices peaked in August, and List prices are in decline overall, days to sell are slightly increasing since June of 2018 but are still considered on the low end of the number of days to sell. However, the number of sales that are occurring has been in decline since August of 2018, and housing inventory has increased. The number of transactions also follows the selling season as the spring and summer are the busy times, and the offseason tends to be January, February, November, and December. Some of the data is indicating that the market has peaked and is slowing down.

Building Permit Indicators

St. Tammany Parish Permit Department reports indicate that New Construction has declined slightly but was overall very close when comparing 2017 to 2018.

Residential Building Permits for St. Tammany Parish

As this market has experienced increases in value over the last 5 years, it appears that the market may be peaking at this time. I personally foresee some stabilization in 2019. The uncertainty of what will happen with interest rates and cost to build will have an impact as increases in wages do not appear to be keeping pace. Again, this would be affected mainly by the interest rates, cost to build and stabilization of demand.

As 2019 approaches, I am anticipating home sales to slow down and decline slightly. I think it will be a somewhat slower year as buyers continue to wrangle with higher mortgage rates after contending with several years of rapid price growth and the price to purchase new homes due to the increased cost. This appears to the trend for the Northshore area overall.

Will Mortgage Rates Continue to Rise?

Despite steady climbing for the past two years, mortgage rates remain lower than they were during most of the recession and below average for the type of strong economic growth we’ve been experiencing. That may change in 2019, as the 30-year, fixed rate mortgage may reach the 5+% territory. However, at the time of this blog post, interest rates were declining to a low of 4.44%.

No photo description available.

The medium and long-term prospects for housing are good because demographics are going to continue to support demand. As the market slows the price appreciation, incomes will have an opportunity to catch up. With slower sales, inventory has a chance to normalize. A bit of slowdown in 2019 creates a healthier housing market going forward.

If you have any questions, we would be happy to assist you with your real estate appraisal needs. Please feel free to leave your comments below or to contact our firm for assistance. We wish everyone a very Happy New Year and a prosperous 2019.

The above statistics were taken from the local MLS/Gulf South Real Estate Network via my personal defined and mapped market areas. Keep in mind these statistics may not include total market data and times, due to previous listings via canceled or expired then possibly reissued and for sale by owners, but give a general idea of statistics if a single-family property is actively and reasonably marketed or priced. This is not to be taken as financial advice or legal advice but is only for information purposes only.

So, what does the real estate market look like going into 2018 for St. Tammany Parish?

St. Tammany Parish Market Analysis

The only way to possibly see what may be happening in the St. Tammany Parish Real Estate market in 2018 is to look back at 2017 and over the last ten years. I have been appraising residential real estate in this region for 24 years and what I have witnessed in this parish has truly been remarkable. As everyone knows Louisiana typically goes in the opposite direction when it comes to housing and the economy, but St. Tammany Parish has basically held its own and appears to be growing each year. So, let’s look at some data using graphs and charts that will make it a bit easier to understand then I will give my final comments.

FYI All Data has been compiled using data from the Gulf South Real Estate Network/Matrix MLS only. For sale by owners’ data is not included in the data and charts below.

Total Active listings

The data is indicating that the number of active listings have now stabilized and are increasing slightly.

average list price

Average list prices have stabilized in St. Tammany Parish over the last 3 years.

Average DOM

Average days on market was increasing since the beginning of the 4th Quarter of 2017 but is still well within a short marketing time for the region.

Average sold price

Average sold price for the parish has increased each year since the housing market began recovering in 2013

Total number of sales 2017

The number of sales per month is declining; however, part of this is due to the available inventory at this time.

Sold Volume

Total Sales Volume over the last 10 years has experienced an increase in volume each year and 2018 is expected to see a slight increase as well.


 

There is another factor that we must review and that is the current atmosphere of available financing. We have been experiencing the lowest mortgage rates in history for the last ten years and as the economy begins to heat up so will the interest rates.

So as the 10-year bond market hits 2.72 that is a signal that interest rates may rise. While they have been at historic lows and may not rise very much when homebuyers hear interest rates are going up it tends to force those on the fence to decide and those that were thinking about buying to have second thoughts.

rates

Six things to keep in mind about rising rates and values

1) Rising interest rates can affect the ability of buyers to afford higher prices because mortgages become more expensive. Unless there is another factor to help prop values up, rising rates can naturally lead to softer values, but rates are not the only driving factor to make the value go up or down in real estate.

2) Demand is strong enough: Rising rates can certainly impact affordability, but the interesting part to consider is we have a slight shortage of housing inventory. This means there is room for some buyers to completely leave the market (or be priced out) because there would still be enough buyers left to afford higher prices. I am very skeptical of articles that say rising rates will not impact buyers at all because it does impact buyers. We do have to entertain the reality of demand being strong enough to a certain extent to deal with some rate increases without much value change (assuming modest increases of course).

3) The squeeze on lower-end buyers: In a market with rising rates, it’s buyers with less money that will be impacted the most because some buyers are on the brink of struggling to afford the market already. Thus, an increase in interest rates that makes a $100 or $200 difference in a mortgage payment can be a very big deal for someone on a tight budget. Moreover, buyers with larger down payments simply have more power when making offers, negotiating, paying beyond appraised value, etc

4) Lenders will get creative: When rates rise it can put pressure on lenders to get more “creative” in their financing so more buyers can keep making loans. In other words, lenders can help buyers afford higher prices with newer and looser loan programs that compensate for higher rates. On a realistic level though, the lending market probably could loosen up a bit in a healthy sense since the regulation pendulum swung very far after the “bubble” burst. For anyone who has tried to get a loan recently, you know how rigorous and stressful it is. Simply put, getting a loan is not as easy as pushing a “rocket” button on a smartphone app. I hope I have made it clear that you understand the value in using local lenders, appraisers, title, and inspection services.

5) Pressure to buy “before it’s too late”: Many buyers feel pressure to get into the market before rates get too much higher, and that’s a dynamic likely to persist throughout this year as discussions about rate increases ensue. It’s as if buyers feel like they have a small window of time to act before they are forever doomed and shut out of the housing market.

6) Now is the time to refinance that home loan if you have not done so and are at least 1.5% higher than current interest rates.

 


 

So, what does the real estate market look like going into 2018 for St. Tammany Parish?

Well, if we had a crystal ball that could tell us for a fact what was going to happen we would all be very wealthy; however, looking at the available data it appears that 2018 will be another good year for St. Tammany Parish. Although it appears that some areas are experiencing a bit of a slow down there is a lot of new construction happening throughout the entire parish and existing inventory if priced right is moving within 60-75 days.

What does that mean for buyers and sellers?

  • Housing inventory levels in St. Tammany Parish have been decreasing over the last number of years this would indicate that you can be aggressive when pricing your home to sell but confirm that you are not overpricing your home for the market and location. Over 85% of buyers’ research on the internet for homes that they are interested in buying; however, many of those resources do not give a realistic value so knowing what a home is worth based on the knowledge of a local real estate appraiser expert will give you the edge when buying or selling.
  • Knowing what is happening in your neighborhood will give you the right knowledge to price your home at a competitive market price so that your home does not sit on the market giving the perception that something must be wrong with that house because it has been on the market for an extended period of time. Knowing the supply and demand will also let you know what your home will be competing in the market.
  • Existing inventory of good quality homes and good locations are scarce. So it is important that you utilize all tools to make you successful in finding your home such as using a real estate agent that is familiar with the market that you are considering. Using a local lender that understands your housing needs, finances and can meet with you face to face to address any issues during the loan process. Use an appraiser that also familiar with the market that the home is located and understands the dynamics of the market that you are about to invest in while buying or selling your real estate.

I hope that the information provided is helpful to you. If you need to know the value of a specific piece of real estate a real estate appraisal completed by a certified real estate appraiser may be your best decision. Joseph Mier & Associates is a full-service real estate appraisal firm located on the Northshore. We serve the Northshore including Tangipahoa, St. Tammany, Livingston, Portions of St. Helena and Washington Parishes. If you have a question or would like to order an appraisal, please contact my office or me for assistance. You can find more information at www.jmappraisers.com

Disclaimer: All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. The information is meant entirely for educational purposes and casual reading only and is NOT intended for any other use.  This information is NOT intended to support an opinion of value for your appraisal needs or to be used for any decisions on investing.

 

Market Forecast for Tangipahoa Parish For 2018

The only way to possibly see what may be happening in the Tangipahoa Parish Real Estate market in 2018 is to look back at 2017 and over the last ten years. I have been appraising residential real estate in this region for 24 years and what I have witnessed in this parish has truly been remarkable. As everyone knows Louisiana typically goes in the opposite direction when it comes to housing and the economy, but Tangipahoa Parish has basically held its own and appears to be growing each year. So, let’s look at some data using graphs and charts that will make it a bit easier to understand then I will give my final comments. FYI All Data has been compiled using data from the Gulf South Real Estate Network/Matrix MLS only. For sale by owners’ data is not included in the data and charts below.

Avg List Price

The data indicates that the average list price has increased from $164,900 at its lowest point during the housing decline to $198,000 or approximately 20% increase since 2012. This indicates a very healthy market has taken place over the last five years after the housing crash of 2008. The market is also indicating that List prices have returned to pre-housing collapse rates and have increased by approximately 2.1% above 2008 values.

dom

The Days On market or DOM indicates the average days a home is for sale in Tangipahoa Parish. As you can see at the time of the housing market collapse in 2008 Days on the market reached almost 120 days with an average of about 80 plus of days on the market; however, since January 2013 days on the market has decreased each quarter indicating a very active market. Mid 2017 DOM were averaging less than 30 days.

Total number of sales

This data indicates the sales volume for residential properties started to propel in 2013 as the housing recovery and financing took shape to accommodate the demand for single-family housing.

Total Active

This data would indicate that currently there is a bit of a housing shortage supply as there were only 568 Active residential properties for sale in Tangipahoa Parish as of January 2018. All Data has been compiled using data from the Gulf South Real Estate Network/Matrix MLS only. For sale by owners’ data is not included in the data

aver sold price per sq ft

 

As we review this information and analyze the highest price per square foot average of $101.66; however, this is based on the entire parish base on zip codes in Tangipahoa Parish. As you can see Ponchatoula had the highest number of sales with the Hammond area following this area.

top 15 sub

Top 15 subdivisions in reference to sales in 2017

Commercial Sales

 

Commercial Real Estate has been fluctuating over the last ten years; however, it appears that the commercial real estate has been increasing since 2013 with a peak in 2017. According to commercial permits form the Tangipahoa Parish Permit department in 2016 Commercial new construction permits equal 16 permits with a valuation of $6,459,065 dollars, and in 2017 that number doubled to 32 permits with a valuation of $10,976,526 or a 70% increase in valuation.

Aveg Sold Price

This chart really indicates when the real estate market started to recover in 2013 after declining and being somewhat flat from 2008-2013. The average sold price increased from $149,400 in 2008 to $167,600 at the beginning of 2018. This would indicate an approximate increase of 12% on the average sold price of residential properties in Tangipahoa Parish.

 


 

There is another factor that we must review and that is the current atmosphere of available financing. We have been experiencing the lowest mortgage rates in history for the last ten years and as the economy begins to heat up so will the interest rates.

So as the 10-year bond market hits 2.72 that is a signal that interest rates may rise. While they have been at historic lows and may not rise very much when homebuyers hear interest rates are going up it tends to force those on the fence to decide and those that were thinking about buying to have second thoughts.

Six things to keep in mind about rising rates and values

1) Rising interest rates can affect the ability of buyers to afford higher prices because mortgages become more expensive. Unless there is another factor to help prop values up, rising rates can naturally lead to softer values, but rates are not the only driving factor to make the value go up or down in real estate.

2) Demand is strong enough: Rising rates can certainly impact affordability, but the interesting part to consider is we have a slight shortage of housing inventory. This means there is room for some buyers to completely leave the market (or be priced out) because there would still be enough buyers left to afford higher prices. I am very skeptical of articles that say rising rates will not impact buyers at all because it does impact buyers. We do have to entertain the reality of demand being strong enough to a certain extent to deal with some rate increases without much value change (assuming modest increases of course).

3) The squeeze on lower-end buyers: In a market with rising rates, it’s buyers with less money that will be impacted the most because some buyers are on the brink of struggling to afford the market already. Thus, an increase in interest rates that makes a $100 or $200 difference in a mortgage payment can be a very big deal for someone on a tight budget. Moreover, buyers with larger down payments simply have more power when making offers, negotiating, paying beyond appraised value, etc

4) Lenders will get creative: When rates rise it can put pressure on lenders to get more “creative” in their financing so more buyers can keep making loans. In other words, lenders can help buyers afford higher prices with newer and looser loan programs that compensate for higher rates. On a realistic level though, the lending market probably could loosen up a bit in a healthy sense since the regulation pendulum swung very far after the “bubble” burst. For anyone who has tried to get a loan recently, you know how rigorous and stressful it is. Simply put, getting a loan is not as easy as pushing a “rocket” button on a smartphone app. I hope I have made it clear that you understand the value in using local lenders, appraisers, title, and inspection services.

5) Pressure to buy “before it’s too late”: Many buyers feel pressure to get into the market before rates get too much higher, and that’s a dynamic likely to persist throughout this year as discussions about rate increases ensue. It’s as if buyers feel like they have a small window of time to act before they are forever doomed and shut out of the housing market.

6) Now is the time to refinance that home loan if you have not done so and are at least 1.5% higher than current interest rates.

t bill rate

So, what does the real estate market look like going into 2018 for Tangipahoa Parish?

Well, if we had a crystal ball that could tell us for a fact what was going to happen we would all be very wealthy; however, looking at the available data it appears that 2018 will be another good year for Tangipahoa Parish. Presently there is a lot of new construction happening throughout the entire parish and existing inventory if priced right is moving within 30-45 days or less especially at less than $250,000 price range.

We can also look at new construction residential permits to see the new building activity. In 2016 there was a total of 578 Residential New Construction permits totaling $84,122,490 in valuation, and in 2017 there was an increase of 9.34% to 632 permits totaling $94,412,531  in value or 12.23% increase in Valuation.  The City of Hammond had 57 new construction permits in 2016 and 84 new construction permits in 2017 that is not included in those numbers.

What does that mean for buyers and sellers?

  • Housing inventory levels in Tangipahoa Parish have been decreasing over the last number of years this would indicate that you can be aggressive when pricing your home to sell but confirm that you are not overpricing your home for the market and location. Over 85% of buyers’ research on the internet for homes that they are interested in buying; however, many of those resources do not give a realistic value so knowing what a home is worth based on the knowledge of a local real estate appraiser expert will give you the edge when buying or selling.
  • Knowing what is happening in your neighborhood will give you the right knowledge to price your home at a competitive market price so that your home does not sit on the market giving the perception that something must be wrong with that house because it has been on the market for an extended period of time. Knowing the supply and demand will also let you know what your home will be competing in the market.
  • Existing inventory of good quality homes and good locations are scarce. So it is important that you utilize all tools to make you successful in finding your home such as using a real estate agent that is familiar with the market that you are considering. Using a local lender that understands your housing needs, finances and can meet with you face to face to address any issues during the loan process. Use an appraiser that also familiar with the market that the home is located and understands the dynamics of the market that you are about to invest in while buying or selling your real estate.

I hope that the information provided is helpful to you. If you need to know the value of a specific piece of real estate a real estate appraisal completed by a certified real estate appraiser may be your best decision. Joseph Mier & Associates is a full-service real estate appraisal firm located in Hammond, LA; however, we serve the Northshore including Tangipahoa, St. Tammany, Livingston, Portions of St. Helena and Washington Parishes. If you have a question or would like to order an appraisal, please contact my office or me for assistance. You can find more information at www.jmappraisers.com

Disclaimer: All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. The information is meant entirely for educational purposes and casual reading only and is NOT intended for any other use.  This information is NOT intended to support an opinion of value for your appraisal needs or to be used for any decisions on investing.