The 2018 Tangipahoa Parish Year End Review and 2019 Forecast

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We have compiled a year’s end market review and market trend summary for Tangipahoa Parish 

As we review this information know that this is a high-level overview of the area as pockets of different areas on the macro level  could show different results


There’s no doubt about it, the 2018 housing market has seen its ups and downs. The year started with rising home prices due to the increase in cost to build, low inventory, historically low mortgage rates and a definitive upper hand for sellers. In recent months though, home price growth has faltered, rates have risen to their highest point in nearly eight years, the cost to build has not declined, and favor has started to shift from seller to the buyer.

Will these trends continue? Will housing experience the same wild ride in the new year?

Most of the growth that is happening continues to be in the south end of the parish. The maps below show the general location of the sales over the last 5 years.

2013 – 1047
2014- 1036 Sales
2015 – 1169 Sales
2016 – 1232 Sales
2017- 1334 Sales
2018 – 1397 Sales


Prices have continued to increase for Tangipahoa Parish over the last 5 years. As Tangipahoa Parish continues to grow so has the Median Sales Price overall for the parish. The Median Sales prices have increased from $149,500 in 2013 to $172,500 in 2018.

Median Sales Prices Over The Last 5 Years

Market times were typically low in this market, as reported by the MLS. Since 2014 days on the market has been decreasing; however, in 2018 the DOM stabilized.

As we have reviewed the data over the last 5 years let’s take a closer look at the last 12 months in 2018.

2018 started out reasonably strong; however, After July the data would indicate that the median sales price was in decline except for September. The overall trend line indicates that the sale prices have been on a slight decline in 2018

In our appraisal research, we have identified slightly increasing marketing times; however, they are still within a very low period of fewer than 50 days for 2018.


Median List prices are indicating a slight decline but have been basically flat for 2018.

The number of sales tends to follow the seasonal market of buying and selling. The spring and summer months tend to be busier than the “winter” months.

As this market has experienced increases in value over the last 5 years, it appears that the market may be peaking at this time. I personally foresee some stabilization in 2019. The uncertainty of what will happen with interest rates and cost to build will have an impact as increases in wages do not appear to be keeping pace. Again, this would be affected mainly by the interest rates, the cost to build and stabilization of demand.

New Construction- What’s the Trend?

As we review housing needs, the U.S. Census indicates that the average U.S. household is 24 percent smaller than it was in the early 1960s. Although last year saw a slight uptick perhaps caused by millennials finally getting married. Still, there are fewer Americans per house or apartment than there were a few decades ago. Despite this, the median new single-family house completed in the U.S. in 2018 was 59 percent bigger than it was in 1973. American Households Have Gotten Smaller Persons per household.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Despite this, the median new single-family house completed in the U.S. in 2017 was 59 percent bigger than it was in 1973.

The number of new homes being built in Tangipahoa Parish has been increasing over the last 5 years, and after reviewing the sale of 404 new home sales in 2018, the Average Home Size was 1800 square feet with an average Price Per Square foot of $108 per square foot overall.

The median price per square foot overall has increased over the last 2 years but so has the cost to build.

Does Lot Size Matter?

None of the indicators above should shock anyone who has driven by any of the new subdivisions in the last couple years in South Tangipahoa Parish. It is interesting to see that the house size has been relatively stable; however the lot sizes have been decreasing. This partly due to the demand of the market but also the cost to build in materials, workforce and development costs.

The cost to build versus the price to buy is approaching a point that may push some builders out of the market due to the cost to develop and build as well as the number of buyers available to purchase also decreases due to the median income for residents in the area. Tangipahoa Parish is feeling the growing pains of this, and the market is reacting by wanting smaller lots and homes with upgraded amenities.

Below you will find an example of the cost to build from a respected Cost Index CoreLogic Swift Estimator. As the Median Home Price ranges from $166,000 to $172,000 over the last two years, it leaves very little room for builder profit. As the cost to develop continues to drive the cost to build new homes upward this directly impacts the potential home buyers in the market.

The data from the Tangipahoa Parish Planning Department indicates the number of new construction permits was slightly down from 2017. I know it seems like the number of houses being built in South Tangipahoa Parish is in the multiple thousands the permits say something different. For a Parish the size of Tangipahoa Parish these permit numbers are great numbers.

New Construction Permits in Tangipahoa Parish 2017 Vs 2018

Will Mortgage rates continue rising?

Despite steady climbing for the past two years, mortgage rates remain lower than they were during most of the recession and below average for the type of strong economic growth we’ve been experiencing. That may change in 2019, as the 30-year, fixed rate mortgage reaches for the 5+% territory. However, at the time of this blog post interest rates were declining to 4.44% for a 30 year fixed mortgage.

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2019 Forecast

Overall the housing market in Tangipahoa Parish was healthy in 2018 and as 2019 approaches, I am anticipating home sale prices to remain stable. I think it will be a slightly slower year as the market continues to wrangle with possible higher mortgage rates after contending with several years of rapid price growth and the increased cost to build but not dramatically slow. This appears to be the trend for the Northshore area overall.

The medium and long-term prospects for housing are good because demographics are going to continue to support demand. Tangipahoa Parish has a number of developments in different phases of starting and building. As the market slows the price appreciation, incomes will have an opportunity to catch up. With slower sales, inventory has an opportunity to normalize.

If you have been on the fence about selling it appears that the market is peaking so now may be the time. All in all, housing appears to be set for a little bit of a slow-down in 2019, as the public responds to the market and the economy and the cost of construction finds its sweet spot.

If you have any questions, we would be happy to assist you with your real estate appraisal needs or real estate consulting. Please feel free to leave your comments below or contact our firm for assistance.

We wish everyone a healthy and prosperous 2019, Happy New Year!!!!

  • The above statistics were taken from the local MLS/Gulf South Real Estate Network via my personal defined and mapped market areas. Keep in mind these statistics may not include total market data and times, due to prior listings via canceled or expired then possibly reissued and for sale by owners, but give a general idea of statistics if a single-family property is actively and reasonably marketed or priced. This is not to be taken as financial advice or legal advice but is only for information purposes only. 

St. Tammany Parish 2018 Market Review and 2019 Forecast

We have compiled a year’s end market review and market trend summary for West and East St. Tammany Parish. This is an overview of a large area, and there may be pockets of smaller areas that could result in different data on the macro level.

There’s no doubt about it the 2018 housing market has seen its ups and downs. The year started with rising home prices, historically low mortgage rates and a definitive upper hand for sellers. In recent months though, home price growth has faltered, rates have risen to their highest point in nearly eight years, and favor has started to shift from seller to buyer.

Will these trends continue? Will housing experience the same wild ride in the new year?

The majority of the sales continue to be in the south end of the parish and on the west end of the parish. The maps below show the general location of the sales over the last year in St. Tammany Parish.

2018- 3996 Sales in St. Tammany Parish

The major majority of sales have taken place west of the center of St. Tammany Parish.

West St. Tammany

Let’s review the last 5 years of median sale prices in West St. Tammany. The overall trend in the previous five years has been increasing sales prices.

Now Let’s drill down to the last 12 months and review what has been happening in West St. Tammany Parish.

The market data indicates that overall the market has experienced an increase of approximately 4% for 2018 with an average sales price of $258,700.

2018 List Prices

Although list prices have been up and down over the last 12 months list prices overall have declined in 2018

The number of sales has been declining since July. Part of this is seasonal; however, part of this is an indicator that the market is slowing down.

Days to sell are slightly increasing since June of 2018 but are still considered on the low end of the number of days to sell. However, the number of sales that are occurring has been in decline since July of 2018, and housing inventory has increased. These are signs that the market has peaked and is slowing down.

Housing inventory at the end of year has really taken an upward jump.

Now Let’s Review East St. Tammany

Sales for the Last 5 years in East St. Tammany Parish

Again, The 5-year trend has been increasing year over year from $139,000 to $179,950 in 2018. However, Let’s drill down and take a look at the last 12 months in East St. Tammany Parish. Median Sale prices have experienced a slight increase over the last 12 months.

However, since July list prices have been declining and overall in the last 12 months, list prices have been falling. It will be interesting to review at the end of the first quarter of 2019 to see if the market trend continues.

Median days to sell is doing quite well at less than 50 days for the last 12 months.

In East St. Tammany Parish sale prices peaked in August, and List prices are in decline overall, days to sell are slightly increasing since June of 2018 but are still considered on the low end of the number of days to sell. However, the number of sales that are occurring has been in decline since August of 2018, and housing inventory has increased. The number of transactions also follows the selling season as the spring and summer are the busy times, and the offseason tends to be January, February, November, and December. Some of the data is indicating that the market has peaked and is slowing down.

Building Permit Indicators

St. Tammany Parish Permit Department reports indicate that New Construction has declined slightly but was overall very close when comparing 2017 to 2018.

Residential Building Permits for St. Tammany Parish

As this market has experienced increases in value over the last 5 years, it appears that the market may be peaking at this time. I personally foresee some stabilization in 2019. The uncertainty of what will happen with interest rates and cost to build will have an impact as increases in wages do not appear to be keeping pace. Again, this would be affected mainly by the interest rates, cost to build and stabilization of demand.

As 2019 approaches, I am anticipating home sales to slow down and decline slightly. I think it will be a somewhat slower year as buyers continue to wrangle with higher mortgage rates after contending with several years of rapid price growth and the price to purchase new homes due to the increased cost. This appears to the trend for the Northshore area overall.

Will Mortgage Rates Continue to Rise?

Despite steady climbing for the past two years, mortgage rates remain lower than they were during most of the recession and below average for the type of strong economic growth we’ve been experiencing. That may change in 2019, as the 30-year, fixed rate mortgage may reach the 5+% territory. However, at the time of this blog post, interest rates were declining to a low of 4.44%.

No photo description available.

The medium and long-term prospects for housing are good because demographics are going to continue to support demand. As the market slows the price appreciation, incomes will have an opportunity to catch up. With slower sales, inventory has a chance to normalize. A bit of slowdown in 2019 creates a healthier housing market going forward.

If you have any questions, we would be happy to assist you with your real estate appraisal needs. Please feel free to leave your comments below or to contact our firm for assistance. We wish everyone a very Happy New Year and a prosperous 2019.

The above statistics were taken from the local MLS/Gulf South Real Estate Network via my personal defined and mapped market areas. Keep in mind these statistics may not include total market data and times, due to previous listings via canceled or expired then possibly reissued and for sale by owners, but give a general idea of statistics if a single-family property is actively and reasonably marketed or priced. This is not to be taken as financial advice or legal advice but is only for information purposes only.

What is the difference between an appraisal, a home inspection and an appraisal wavier?

house-appraiser-holding-appraisal-sheet

Both appraisers and home inspectors visit the property and look around. An appraisal wavier may not involve anyone visiting the property.

Although appraisers and home inspection professionals are both key players in a home sale and other real estate transactions, they serve very different purposes. The simplest way to delineate inspectors and appraisers is to talk about the goals of each party: Appraisers estimate a home’s value, while inspectors determine a property’s condition while an appraisal wavier measures risk for the lender.

What makes them appear similar? 

It’s not hard to discern why homeowners could believe a home inspection and appraisal are the same thing. In both cases, a professional comes out to the house and performs a site visit. He or she walks around, opens a few doors, takes some measurements and jots down notes. This includes an examination of exterior and interior space. However, the way in which appraisers and inspectors think about and evaluate home features is different.

“Appraisers estimate a home’s value, while inspectors determine a property’s condition.”

inspection

How home inspectors view a property
Property inspection walkthroughs are generally more detailed than the ones for an appraisal. This is because inspectors need to have a comprehensive view of all components of a house, its condition, and its functionality. In addition to taking photos and notes, inspectors may use other tools to spot trouble areas, for instance, using an infrared camera to note spaces that are at risk for mold growth.

Essentially, an inspector’s job boils down to determining what state a feature is in, whether it works and whether there is a risk for future structural or other damage. For instance, an improperly graded home could flood more often, which could lead to water damage and mold. This and other issues impact whether the home remains a livable space for the owners.

Home inspections give buyers full disclosure on the condition of a house from small issues to major ones. Anything that could present a repair cost could have an impact on a buyer, and an inspection delivers this crucial information.

Inspectors also provide recommendations for repairs as well as estimates for the costs.

How appraisers view a property
The Appraiser site visit isn’t as lengthy because the majority of the analysis work happens away from the house. This includes a review of comparable sales data and other research, such as trends in the neighborhood, location appeal, nearby new construction and remodeling, accessibility to employment and shopping, and overall livability and demand. However, Appraisers also take notes, photos, and measurements, but rather than looking at home features as to whether they’re in need of extensive repairs, valuation professionals determine how amenities impact value in the local market.

The appraisers’ site visit cites obvious issues. If the paint is peeling off of a house, for instance, appraisers consider that detail in their reports. However, they likely won’t note problems that can’t be seen with the naked eye, such as faulty wiring behind the walls.

Moreover, appraisers consider how the home functions in its community in regard to value. While inspectors look at only the property in question, appraisers factor in the comparable properties, nearby amenities and other variables within the market.

Home inspectors have a more in-depth walkthrough than appraisers.

Appraisals, inspections and home sales
Both the appraisal and home inspection results could impact whether a home sale goes through.

Home inspections can also cause a buyer to forgo a purchase. Often, buyers include a property inspection contingency in their offers, which means their agreement to buy the house at the offered amount is based on the home’s condition meeting a standard they find acceptable. If the property needs repairs, buyers can negotiate a lower sale price to cover the costs or request the seller make the necessary upgrades.

Are they both important?
Yes, all buyers and sellers should see value in appraisals and home inspections. Appraisals will almost always be part of the home buying process when a mortgage is involved. Home inspections are not required but typically a good investment. Sometimes, buyers waive the inspection clause to make their offer more attractive to sellers, but buyers could eventually be stuck with a home that has a number of hidden and costly issues.

Because appraisals impact the lender and are subject to more regulation than inspections, appraisers must have a license or certification no matter what state they work in. On the other hand, inspectors have licensing requirements in only 39 states, and a certification is an option for professionals who perform inspections full time and want to increase their business, according to the National Association of Home Inspectors. Regardless of less oversight for inspections, buyers should seek the same quality of service from a home inspector as they would from a certified real estate appraiser. With a clear idea of a home’s value and condition, buyers can make a well-informed purchase.

 

Appraisal Waivers

Sometimes there are cases when the lender may notify the borrower that an appraisal completed by a human certified appraiser can be waived; however, I would caution the buyer and or agents in this case to get their own appraisal completed by the independent professional appraiser that has no skin in the game of them buying the home. In other words, the lender waiving the “appraisal” for an automated valuation completed by a computer does very little to nothing to protect the borrower and to confirm that the investment being made is a fair market purchase at the time of purchase. The automated valuation only tells the bank the risk for the loan that they are making on home. The “CMA” comparative market analysis completed by the real estate agent is not an appraisal and is used to find a probable sales price and not a fair market value. Although these numbers could be similar there is a difference in these definitions and it matters.

  • Asking price: This the amount the seller is asking for the home when listing it for sale. It is also referred to as the list or listing price because it’s the amount the house is listed for in the Multiple Listing Service (MLS).
  • Selling price: This is the amount at which the property actually sells. It is also referred to as the sale price. It may be higher, lower, or the same as the initial asking price, depending on what happens during the offer and negotiating stage.
  • Market value: This is the current value of a home based on local sales prices. Fair market value is driven by the forces of supply and demand, and these factors can vary from one local housing market to the next. That’s why similar homes in different real estate markets (cities) tend to have different values.

As you can see both the appraisal and the home inspection are important roles in the buying and selling of real estate. I hope that this has answered some questions that you may have had about the differences between appraisals and home inspections. Thanks for taking the time to read this blog. Leave your comments below or let us know how we can assist you with your appraisal needs by contacting us today.

 

 

4 Things Agents Can Do To Save Their FHA Buyers Money and Time

Fellow Appraiser Tom Horn shared this great article on 4 Things Agents Can Do To Save Their FHA Buyers Money And Time

May 3, 2018 By Tom Horn

Do You Want To Save Your FHA Buyers Money and Time?

This week I had a situation with an FHA appraisal assignment that I wanted to share with you. The thing that makes this one different from the others is that if it had been handled differently it would have saved the buyers money on a final inspection and they probably could have closed their loan faster.

Appraisals done for FHA financing are typically more strict than for conventional loans. Issues that arise usually fall into 3 categories which are safety, soundness, and security. Safety refers to the health, habitability, and sanitary conditions of the property. Any item that would threaten the occupant’s health is included here, such as peeling paint, frayed wiring, or missing handrails.

The second ‘S’ is for soundness, which relates to the structure and structural components of the home. Examples of these include items such as foundation problems or roof leaks. The last ‘S’ is for security. We’re not talking about whether the house is locked up and secure but whether the property will be good collateral for the loan. Is it worth at least what the buyer is borrowing?

Things that can affect whether it will be good collateral usually have to do with its marketability. Some of the things that can affect marketability include whether the home is near high voltage power lines, near railroad tracks, or some other negative influence. If it is then this may keep people from wanting to buy it from the bank if it went into foreclosure.

In my 28+ years as an appraiser I’ve seen all kinds of issues with homes but today I’ll share with you the top 4 things agents can do to save their FHA buyers money and time.
4 Key Areas To Focus On:

1) Windows– The biggest issue I see with windows is whether they can be easily opened if it is necessary to exit to the outside. This is the perfect example of a safety issue. If there was a fire in the home and the only way to get outside was through a window could it be opened?

Windows in older homes are usually the ones that are hardest to open because most of the time they are painted shut. I did, however, see something this week I had never seen and that was windows that were nailed shut.

They were impossible to open up and I made it a requirement for the nails to be removed so the windows could open and close. For safety’s sake, they should be able to be opened by a small child in case of an emergency.

2) Paint– I’ve written previous posts on the proper way to address peeling paint in FHA loans so I won’t cover that here except to emphasize that if a house has peeling paint it should be removed and repainted. Over the years I have slowly seen conventional loan requirements also require this, so its a good bet that no matter what loan type a borrower chooses the peeling paint will need to be corrected so why not do it before the home goes on the market? Putting it off until the last minute will only result in the borrower paying more and delaying the loan.

3) Appliances– I get questions from agents about appliances frequently. They are concerned that the home may not pass the FHA appraisal guidelines if an appliance is missing.

One of the main things to keep in mind is that an appliance does not have to be present to pass FHA guidelines. If an appliance is missing, however, there cannot be any exposed wiring or uncapped gas pipes.

If an appliance is present it must work properly. A stove that has burners that do not work or a microwave that will not turn on will either have to be removed or replaced.

4) Utilities– As you might expect, all utilities must be turned on for the appraisal observation. Electricity must be on for the appraiser to check the operation of all of the appliances as well as the heating and cooling system.

If the home has gas it must also be turned on to check things such as the heater, water heater, and the stove if it is gas. The water must be on so that the faucets can be turned on and the toilet can be checked as well.

So to recap, agents can save their clients both time and money by making sure that windows open and close, no peeling paint is present, appliances work if they are present, and that all utilities are on. This will ensure that the appraiser does not have to revisit the property, which extends closing time and increases cost for the additional inspection.

Thanks Tom for sharing this great information I hope this information helps you get to the closing table quicker. If you are a homeowner taking care of these repair items before you get ready to list your home will help things go much smoother. If you have any questions or comments contact us or post below.